VS_PipsCola_Y01 Backtest Result

This is the backtest result of VS_PipsCola_Y01 EA. I use historical data from Alpari broker. Backtest period is January 2009 to October 2010, while spreads in this backtest is 2.8.
I think between all my EA, then this VS_PipsCola_Y01 that gives the best backtest result on USDJPY pair. Unfortunately the filter which is used by this EA may not work well when tested using historical data from other brokers.
Actually I have some variety in this EA, only because of time constraints I did not get to test everything. So I thought I'd better release a version of Y01 to have time to test all such strategy.

VS_PipsCola_Y01 Trading System Parameter

Here is an explanation of the parameters relating to the trading system. For parameters associated with Money Management you can see into VS_PipsCola_D01 Money Management Parameters. Similarly, the parameters associated with the Trading Time, you may refer to VS_PipsCola_D01 Trading Time Parameters.
MaxProfit = 10, this parameter is similar with vs_eurocross has. This parameter serves to set the maximum profit in pip value.
MasterPeriod = 3; this parameter set period of keltner channel on the Time Frame H1.
SignalPeriod = 12;
ChannelPeriod = 11;
I think if you want to optimize VS_PipsCola_Y01, then just just optimize these two parameters. However for a complete optimization, you can also optimize the MinRangePerTrade and MasterPeriod parameter.
PipAfterFractal = 2; VS_PipsCola_Y01 using fractal trailing stop. This parameter controls how many pips pips from the fractal the stop losses is placed. And You need to know trailing stop is activated only after trading hours passed.
I think it's just that I need to explain. Since all other parameters similar to those in VS_PipsCola_D01.

I Thank You

Actually I hope today I can send VS_PipsCola_Y01 to all of the users of PipsCola EA. However, because of one thing, I can not do that today. But I'm still trying to get it done this weekend.
I also want to thank the blogger who has written reviews about Volatily-Scalp EA. Whether it be in the form of forward test or also doing translation into Japanese. That's why I've put these links on this blog. And I try to always update it, or contact me if you want to place your link.
And specifically if you are in Japan, you can visit this blog. I thanked him for his efforts that translate PipsCola EA manual into Japanese.

Trading Result November 30, 2010

Today's trading results are positive. Charlotte produced 3 pips while VS_PipsCola_D01 produced 12 pips. Although the profit gained less than a week ago, but at least VS_PipsCola_D01 always give more than 10 pips profit. Not only that, the average holding time is relatively short. You can analyze it through my myfxbook.
As I have often expressed that there would be Pipscola new version to work in pair except for EURUSD. And it seems it is the USDJPY pair. But unfortunately this new version is not in the form of an upgrade from older version. However, this is a new EA. I'm very difficult when trying to combine them, so I thought its better to separate them. And its name is VS_PipsCola_Y01.
I think 1 or 2 days ahead, this EA will arrive in your paypal mailbox.

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Channel Trading, Scalping With Keltner Channel

One of the most complicated thing that I feel when making Volatily Scalp system is anticipating a drastic decline of Average True Range (ATR) in record time. As a scalping system based on the trading channel, determining the length of the period Keltner Channel is very important. This is because the channel width of the Keltner Channel indicator can change over time depending on market volatility.
In the Channel trading, generally upper channel and lower channel act as overbought and oversold levels. Buy position is taken when the price hits or below the lower channel and sell position taken when price hit or above the upper channel. No matter with indicators that used to create the channel. As for an exit strategy there are many options but generally is the opposite of the entry signal itself.
Now let us look at the chart below. On this chart I put a Keltner Channel indicator (20.2). Red vertical line to mark the beginning of the transaction (at 21 GMT 1). I also placed an indicator CK_Speed (20.50) and ATR. (20).
It should VS_Eurocross can get sell signal as I describe in the chart above. Although the position of an exit may be slightly different. But what I want to show is how the system with the Keltner channel (20.2) miss a couple of profitable trades. Therefore, I draw 2 horizontal lines that act as a channel to clarify what I mean.
I've been plagued with this problem. And it seems impossible to know what is the optimal length of Keltner Channel Period at any time. But when I'm working on EA's Charlotte, I always strive to capture this pattern. I use the High / Low of the last 2 bars when the entry signal occurs as a place of exit. The results with the same chart as above, charlote EA is more aggressive.

Trading Result November 19, 2010

I do not know what happened with my Mt4stats. Detailed statement was not published correctly. So I will publish my trading results today. But because today is the last day in this week's for EA to work, then I will post the results of trading in a week.
Today VS_PipsCola_D01 EA gives very good results where the EA makes profit of 15 pips. That means a quarter of the stop losses. In contrast to yesterday where the EA deal when liquidity is very low, today EA deal while liquidity is still high. All transactions are made when Average True Range ATR (5) is still above 10 points and the transaction can be closed quickly. And I think this is in conformity with what I expected. Stay ahead we see whether such results could be more frequently obtained.
For the trading results in a week then the results remain positive. This is because charlotte2 more aggressive this week so it can cover the losses suffered by VS_PipsCola_D01. It seems they are the right partner.
Regarding the development of VS_PipsCola, right now I still focus on the pair USDCHF and USDJPY. There is a good improvement of the USDCHF pair. But on the other hand Charlotte integration into PipsCola also went smoothly. Hopefully PipsCola update can be released as soon as possible . If its possible in the beginning of December or at least before the new year. I'll be working on it

A Loss Trade

VS_PipsCola suffered a loss today. Although at first could make profit by 8 pips, but a sell position made at 23 (GMT 1) ended with a loss of 60 pips. So for this week, VS_PipsCola has suffered a loss of 44 Pips. This is because yesterday VS_PipsCola make profit as much as 8 Pips.
But I do not think to change the settings to be used. In my opinion, Sell position made at 23 (GMT 1) it is appropriate. Only after that liquidity is very low. I calculate the range (High-Low) at 23 only by 5.8 pips. So very hard to close the trade with a profit at that hour. Unfortunately after at 0 (GMT 1) price moves up and finally touched the stop loss position.
Currently I have a focus to develop PipsCola on another pair. And I have a target to release it before the New Year. But I'm working on it to be released early December, so that there is a chance to do forward test. I have 2 alternatives at this time. Developing PipsCola for USDCHF pair or modify Charlotte2 for including into PipsCola family. I got many requests for the second alternative. But it is very difficult to integrate with VS_PipsCola_D01. And even if eventually PipsCola for USDJPY pair was released, most likely in the form of a separate EA. Maybe I'll give its own version to distinguish it with the version of EURUSD.
I hope you guys have the patience to wait. Because after losses in the EURUSD pair, it is a little distracting me. But I still think that this loss does not deviate from the backtest. So I do not need to change anything, either setting or system. Just you know, I use h_pipscola_alpari setting in My Account, and this is an aggressive setting.

VS_PipsCola_D01 Trading Time On ForexCoJpy

I want to explain in more detail how to configure VS_PipsCola_D01 trading time. This is to avoid mistakes as there are different time zones held by the broker. I will give examples of how to set the trading time on the broker Forex.Co.Jpy.
And again I would like to emphasize that VS_PipsCola_D01 not transact at weekend and in the beginning of the week. If you are still confused how to set RestrictionDay parameters, then you should just remember the rules. I created RestrictionDay Parameters to prevent the EA deal over the weekend and the beginning of market opening.
To set the trading time on ForexCoJpy then we need to know the time zone used by the broker. Currently, the time zone used by ForexCoJpy are GMT 9. And if I look at this broker does not implement Daylight Saving Time. I know it after seeing the losses that occurred in Charlotte, where the EA deal 1 hour early. At first I thought ForexCoJpy will switch their timezone to GMT 8 when DST ends. And apparently not, so I had to change the trading time.
Let the following parameters of the trading time to brokers ForexCoJpy VS_PipsCola_D01.
OpenHour = 5;
OpenMinute = 0;
CloseHour = 7;
CloseMinute = 59;
EnableXtraTime = False; Unless you want to use it, then adjust the position of True;
XtraCloseHour = 9;
XtraCloseMinute = 59;
For RestrictedDay settings, we can use DAY_OF_WEEK parameter to prevent the EA deal at the weekend. While we use Day_Of_Week2 parameter to prevent the EA deal in the beginning of week. You can just swap it. Furthermore, you can use it to prevent the EA deal on Days and hours you specify yourself. For example, if there is a major event that coincided with the trading time, then you can set this parameter to prevent the EA deal at the time the event occurred. Of course, after the event is finished you have to set it again to prevent EA transact at weekends and in the beginning of the week.
Market closure on forex.co.jpy happen on Saturday. For that the settings are:
DAY_OF_WEEK = 6;
Begin = 0;
End = 23;
To prevent the EA deal in Market Opening on Forex.Co.Jpy Broker:
DAY_OF_WEEK = 1;
Begin2 = 5;
End2 = 8;
Actually, if you fill with Begin2 = 0 and End2 = 23 then the result remains the same. I'm using Begin2 = 5 and End2 = 8 to clarify its usefulness, that preventing the EA deal in the beginning of the week.

VS_PipsCola Installation Guide

Actually the installation process of an EA is very easy, because you just need to put it in the Experts (folder) directory of your Metatrader platform. But sometimes an EA uses the indicators that are not available on metatrader. And this will be a problem if you can not distinguish between indicators with EA. Not to mention if EA has the library files and include file. All these files should you place it on each folder.
Generally if you install Metatrader on your computer, then they have the same directory structure no matter with your broker. The difference is the name of the root directory. As in the following figure is from Metatrader directory structure of Alpari Broker.

Installing VS_PipsCola
There are four files that you need to put in the proper directory to make EA vs_PipsCola working. The four files are composed of an EA, 2 custom indicator and a library file. Actually there are an others file which are also used by EA vs_PipsCola_D01, but you do not need to worry because the files are already available in your Metatrader.

1. VS_PIPSCOLA_D01.Mq4, it is the EA. This file must be located at: C:\Program Files\Your MetaTrader \experts
2. Keltner Channels. Mq4, it is indicator. This file must be located at: C:\Program Files\Your MetaTrader \experts\ indicators
3. CK_Spee.Mq4, it is indicator. This file must be located at: C:\Program Files\Your MetaTrader \experts\ indicators
4. Pipscola.dll. This file must be located at: C:\Program Files\ Your MetaTrader \experts\libraries

Because the EA uses external library which is made from C++, then you need to configure your Metatrader platform to allow DLL import. You can do it by pressing Ctrl+O in your chart window, and then the option window will appear. Just click on Expert Advisors tab and you have to check the Allow Dll Import.

Update on Sunday, December 5, 2010.
To install VS_PipsCola_Y01 then do the same as above. What you should know, both use the same indicators. The difference VS_PipsCola_Y01 uses the library named "Charlotte3.dll" while EA file named "VS_PipsCola_Y01.mq4".

VS_PipsCola_D01 Trading System Parameter

In this section I will explain the parameters of the indicators that are used by VS_Pipscola. So, if you want to optimize the parameters of vs_pipscola, hopefully this explanation can help you.
VS_PipsCola is an EA that works on 15 Minutes Chart. However, it actually observe H1 Time Frame to determine market conditions. Market conditions are determined based on the observations on CK_Speed, ATR, Keltner Channel and parabolic sar indicator. As for putting a more precise entry, EA observe a smaller time frame. Although the observe several time frames, but it use the same length period of CK_Speed, ATR, and Keltner Channel in all time frames observed by the EA. Besides, the EA also allows averaging system.
Here is an explanation of the parameters of VS_PipsCola associated with trading system.
double MasterPeriod = 5; This is the length period used by ATR, Keltner Channel and CK_Speed Indicator on all time frames observed by EA. The use of a single parameter is to facilitate you in doing optimization.
Because EA observes H1 Time Frame, I think this value should not be too big. If you want to do the optimization, I think the minimum value is 3 and the maximum value is 8.
double MaximumAtr = 45; This is similar to filter MaxDayAtr on vs_eurchf. Only VS_Eurchf using D1 Time Frame while VS_PipsCola use H1 Time Frame . The lower you set this parameter value, then a few transactions that may occur. We recommend that you set the value of this parameter refers to the stop losses you want to use. This means that the value of your stop losses should not be below the value of this parameter.
double H1InitialDev = 0.1; This parameter is used to adjust the deviation of Keltner Channel on H1 time frame. The larger the value of this variable the more difficult to place a trade.
double M15InitialDev1 = 0.8;
double M15InitialDev2 = 0.8;
The two variables above are used to adjust the deviation of Keltner Channel on the 15 Time Frame. PipsCola EA actually can be arranged to use a different deviation based on market condition. But if you want EA always uses the same deviation, then the two variables must be equal. Since these variables set the deviation of the Keltner Channel, so the smaller the value of these variables will make EA more aggressive.
If you optimize these variables, then the maximum possible results would be obtained if you set a value of M15InitialDev1 less than M15InitialDev2. While the optimal value of the two variables is likely to lie between 0.5 to 1
int MinRange = 5; parameter is similar to the one owned by vs_eurocross. It set the minimum distance between price and moving average. And the rule is clear, the value of this parameter is greater than the Spread + 1.
double MinRangePerTrade = 10; If EA is allowed to take more than 1 same position, then this parameter will set the minimum distance between the same trade position.
int MaxTradePerBar = 1; this parameter to set how many open positions that may be taken on every bar. I said open position, because although the value of this parameter is 1, the EA may transact more than 1 per bar. Suppose that EA took a position and then close the position in the same bar, so if there is a new signal EA will continue to execute the signal.
But despite it all, this parameter can make EA become more aggressive even if you do not optimize the other parameters.
bool AllowHedging = true; this parameter to set whether the EA could take 2 opposite positions (buy and sell). Of course this is closely related to the regulation that is used by each broker.
bool UseSecondaryPeriod = false;
double SecondaryPeriod = 3;
I deliberately wanted to explain these variables just in the last section. This is because you can ignore these two variables. But if you are curious, then this is actually the second Keltnert channel observed by the EA in the H1 time frame. You can optimize this parameter. But you have to adjust the UseSecondaryPeriod with True.And another thing if you manage to set SecondariPeriod at 5, means not to change anything, because it has the same length period of MasterPeriod. It is highly experimental, so please try it yourself. Although in my opinion the value of this parameter is only optimal if less than MasterPeriod, but I never optimize it.

VS_PipsCola_D01 Money Management Parameter

I think VS_PipsCola_D01 was ready for distribution. But before that I better explain its parameters first. I probably will not include the manual, so I'll publish them all online via this blog. And for simplicity I will divide these parameters into several sections. And this section will explain the parameters associated with Money Management or any parameter that affect in your risk. For Trading Time section, you can see in the VS_PipsCola Trading Time Parameter.
It could be said that all of my previous EA will fail to calculate Lot size correctly on non Dollars account. Therefore, I try to change it in order to accurately calculate the lot size for all types of deposits. Hopefully, this formula works, but if not you should be forced to perform calculations manually.
The following parameters are used by VS_PipsCola_D01 related to Money Management.
MM bool = true. This parameter is telling the EA whether to calculate the lots base on the available margin. If this parameter is set with True value, means that EA will calculate the number of lots based on the Free Margin. Otherwise the EA will look to the other parameter to determine the lot size.
Double RiskPerTrade = 5; parameter is only meaningful if you set the MM parameter with True. RiskPerTrade means the amount of margin that will be used for 1 transaction. RiskPerTrade = 5 means that the margin for each transaction is 5 percent. However, the total margin that may be used by the EA is also influenced by other variables namely MaxTradePerPosisition.
MaxTradePerPosition = 3; this parameter to set the number of transactions allowed for each position (Buy / Sell). However, this parameter will affect your risk, because the larger the value of this parameter, the more margin to be used. If you set RiskPerTrade with 5, and your MaxTradePerPosition is 3, meaning the amount of margin that is used to open the three transactions are 5 x 3 = 15.
Double Lots = 0.1; parameter is only meaningful if you set MM parameters with the False value. Regardless of the value that you fill in this parameter, over the free margin is sufficient, then this parameter will be used to determine lot size for every 1 transaction.
int StopLoss = 60; I think this is very clear parameters. You must determine how many stop losses are used for each transaction. You do not need to worry if your broker uses 4 digits or 5 digits. 60 always means 60 pips does not matter with your broker digits.
int MaxLossesToStopTrading = 1; Although this parameter does not affect the calculation MoneyManagement, but this is to adjust your risk management. This parameter will tell the EA to stop to take a position if EA had suffered losses at the value of this parameter. Yet EA will continue to maintain any position that is still open.

VS_PipsCola_D01 Trading Time Parameter

I think VS_PipsCola_D01 was ready for distribution. But before that I better explain its parameters or external variable first. I probably will not include the manual, so I'll publish them all online via this blog. And for simplicity I will divide these parameters into several sections. And this section will explain the parameters associated with Trading Time setting. For the Money Management section, you can find in VS_PipsCola_d01 Money Management Parameter.
Default trading time is 21-23GMT+1. So please adjust your trading time if your broker time zone is not GMT+1. The following parameters are related to trading hours:
Opening
OpenHour = 21;
OpenMinute = 0;
Two variables above are used to set when to start trading. Their combination will tell the EA what time to begin to trade. OpenHour=12 and OpenMinue=0 means that EA will start to trade at 21.00.
Closing
CloseHour = 23;
CloseMinute = 59;
Just like the opening, CloseHour and CloseMinute are used to set when to stop trading. Combination of CloseHour and CloseMinute will tell the EA what time to stop to trade. CloseHour=23 and CloseMinute=59 means EA will stop to trade at 23.59.
Extra Time
bool EnableXtraTime = true;
int XtraCloseHour = 1;
int XtraCloseMinute = 59;
The three parameters above may be rarely used by EA. I add this parameter to increase the trading hours. But this only applies if EA still has an open position. And EA is just going to take the same position with the open position. For example if the EA still hold a Long position and the trading hour has been passed, if extra time is enable then the EA will only take a Long position and never take the opposite position.
To enable the extra time you have to adjust the EnableXtraTime parameter with True. The rest it just like to set closing hour. So XtraCloseHour=1 and XtraCloseMinute=59 means the extra time will end at 1.59.
Restricted Day
int DAY_OF_WEEK = 5;
int Begin = 0;
int End = 23;
Day_of_Week2 int = 1;
Begin2 int = 0;
End2 int = 5;
In general I do not allow the EA to trade at the Beginning and Closing market. And to arrange for the EA does not trade on these days, I am providing as much as 6 parameters.
Parameters Day_of_Week2 and DAY_OF_WEEK can be filled between 0 to 6 that represents the days from Sunday to Saturday. While the Begin, End, Begin2 and End2 parameters represent the hour for the day.
So DAY_OF_WEEK = 5, Begin = 0 and End = 23, mean EA is not allowed to transact on Friday from 0 to 23 o'clock. While DAY_OF_WEEK = 1, Begin2 = 0, and End2 = 5 means that the EA should not trade on Monday from at 0 to 5 o'clock.
All you have to note that this is a configuration for Alpari server which their Time Zone is GMT+1. And you should also remember, that the trade in Alpari Server starts Monday at 0 GMT+1, while the actual Forex Market is open on the Sunday at 23 GMT+1. So if even if your broker time zone is the same with Alpari, you also need to find out if they start trading at 23 or 0. If your broker start to trade on Sunday at 23 GMT+1 o'clock, prevent ea to trade at this time.

VS_PipsCola Backtest Result in 2009

Although at the moment VS_PipsCola has the best result on EURUSD pair, but seeing the results of the backtest on the other pair, it could be in the future VS_PipsCola will support several pairs at once. There are actually an interesting thing from backtest result on FOREX Major Pairs (USD-JPY, GBP-USD, USD-CHF and EUR-USD). In general VS_PipsCola gave results that did not disappoint during the year 2009. Moreover, I only use the same settings on all of these pairs.
Settings that I use on all of these backtest are:
Trading Hour: 21-23
Lot: 1
MaxTradePerBar: 1
MaxTradePerPosition: 3
STOP LOSS: 60
Spread for each pair on the backtest:
USDJPY: 2.8
EURUSD: 1.7
GBPUSD: 2.8
USDCHF: 3.2

PipsCola USDJPY 2009

it looks better then Charlotte at the same periode.

PipsCola USDCHF 2009

It seems somewhat promising although tested with a high spread conditions.

PipsCola GBPUSD 2009

Next post i'll show you the backtest result in 2010 and so we can see what pair that possible to be supported by VS_PipsCola.

VS_PipsCola is EA Donation

It seems VS_PipsCola will become a new family of Volatily Scalp. I am targeting to be published this month, or no later than early December. But I apologize, I'm not going to save VS_PipsCola in my 4shared folder for downloaded for free. I'm just going to give it through donation or the trader who is registered under my affiliate program at the Alpari Broker.
A little hard for me to apply this rule, and I've tagged to this Blog as a place of free EA. But I must say that I need a rather large financial support at the end of this year. But I also do not want to sell this EA to someone to be sold in bulk. I think Charlotte just enough. I also avoid what is called hype. I publish the Forward Test of Charlotte in order to avoid things like this. So you can judge for yourself how the ability of Charlotte, when someday you find this EA in the market. I'm not saying that all commercial EA is hype, but you should listen Pipturbo case if you are newbie on the EA.
When I published EA and showing the results of backtest or forward test, then the decision is in your hands as the investor. There is no guarantee that the backtest results, even a forward test that is running, will remain similar in the future. But I still think that as an investor you still need a backtest results. How big is the difference between the backtest and real trade that you get, could be a measure to stop or continue using the system. Even just by looking at the Risk / Reward, you may be able to assess whether the EA or trading system is suitable with your profile. And I always put myself as an Expert Advisor Developer, and not as people who are already successful with a trading system, then make it into an EA. Sure, I'm not asking donation if am a successful trader.
About what features you want from VS_PipsCola, please give feedback via this post or via email, hopefully I can apply them.

PipsCola, EURUSD Scalping EA

Although lately I'm busy working on Charlotte, I am taking the time to continue making my other EA. Actually since a long time I want to make scalping EA that work on the EURUSD pair. Even you should know that my first EA (VS_EURCHF), I initially created to work on the EURUSD pair. As the most liquid pairs in FOREX, with low spreads, should be easier to apply scalping method on EURUSD pair.
And if you watch my demo account, there you will see the transactions on the EURUSD pair. Although not yet fully finished, but I still do forward test. A bit disappointing, because it already suffered two losses within 1 week. But I still continue to maintain continuity between the backtest and forward testing. The loss occurred because I have not had time to optimize the target profit and also have not had time to optimize the variable stop losses.
And finally I have a special time to fix it, and I think EA is completed.
I feel very thirsty when finished working on this EA. But just remember if I have not given a name. Because I work on this EA based on VS_EURCHF. If you enjoyed dessert Charlotte, then you may be interested to drinking PipsCola. But I hope you do not try this one, MarginCola!

Day Light Saving Time (DST) and Trading Time

Alpari switch their Server Time Zone in relation to the completion of Daylight Saving Time (DST), which was from GMT+2 to GMT+1. The change is interesting because many Expert Advisors that work only at certain hours. Are the settings on expert advisor must follow this change? Suppose if you previously used 21-23 on VS_Eurocross EA, whether now have to use 20-22 or remain at 21-23?
Maybe if the change is simultaneously carried out by countries that implement it, then it's not too complicated. But what happened today, where the U.S. and other countries will change their Time Zone next week. And brokers are likely to apply the Time Zone to follow regulations in their respective countries. But despite the changes made at the same, the question of trading hours arrangements may not be answered.
I think for the moment, we should remain based on the DST before all nations use standard time again. So if your trading time 21-23, means you have to change to 20-22 with the assumption that your broker turn off Daylight Saving Time (DST) . If DST is disabled entirely, then we go back to Trading time 21-23. But if you are confused determine your trading time associated with the change, then the safest way is reducing the duration of your trading time. The trick is to change your Closing Time an hour earlier. So if your trading time is 21-23 then you change it to 21-22, and you do not have to worry about whether your broker to apply the Daylight Saving Time (DST) or not.

Parabolic SAR and Fibonacci Lines

It could be said that I include the Parabolic Sar indicator in all the EA that I made today. And although generally parabolic sar is used as trailing stop as well as stop and reversal system, we actually can use it in another perspective. This is what I get when I learned about Fibonacci lines. I am very confused where to place the swing high and swing low. To make it a mechanical system, there must be clarity where to put those lines.
If we observe any signal change indicated by the Parabolic Sar, then it could be a clue where we put the Swing High / Low Swing of the Fibonacci lines. If you set the parabolic step with the value 0.002, then you will get a good starting point for putting your Fibonacci lines. Place the Swing High / Swing Low right at the signal changes of the Parabolic Sar. If the Parabolic Sar change it’s direction from sell signal to buy signal, it means you should place swing low at the first dot of Parabolic Sar. Actually it is the same whether you place it at the lowest prices that occurred in the previous signal. Now to put the swing high is easy, you just follow the price movements while the Parabolic Sar is still giving buy signals.

But that's just my way to reinforce where to put Fibonacci lines. As a tool, anyone can use an indicator with a variety of ways and interpretation. So, how about to scalp using these indicators? I have no idea.

Forward Test Result and Manage Account

This week I was able to publish the results of Charlotte2 forward test. Actually you can already see the results since a few days ago. Since I've put a link to the publisher the right of this blog. But it's running on the Demo Account at Alpari. While I should post it manually what running on real accounts. In the next few days, I will publish automatically statement of real account with respect to the performance of my VPS.
On average, each account has only 2 deals on this week. But at least this is better than earlier versions. Especially if you see that EA is only working 3 hours a day and 4 days a week. Yes, just 4 days a week, because EA does not work at the opening of trade and the end of the week. But configuration error occurs on account of real trade, I forgot that trade on forex.com broker starts an hour earlier than Alpari. And I forgot to adjust the parameters that govern it. This allows the EA to trade for 1 hour in early trading. But fortunately the transaction is not fatal although almost touching the position of stop losses.
You can see the results of forward test of the demo accounts on my MT4 stats. And for a real account you can see in the picture below. You can compare it to the results of last week.

Professional Account

Standard Account

I also want to give the opportunity for some people who want to invest in FOREX using charlotte to contact me at ch1qho@gmail.com. Before I could decide when and how charlotte later published, then Manage Account only alternative I can give at this time.
And for traders who have registered in the broker Alpari through my affiliate link, I will give a free service Manage Account of any type of account you have.
Happy weekend

Trailing Stop

Do not let a profit turn into losses. This is a principal in trading system that we often hear from the master trading. If prices move in accordance with our position, use a trailing stop or put our stop losses in the break event point. So if you already have a profit of 10 pips, quickly activate the trailing stop. What happens then prices turned direction and touches your stop losses kicking you out, then turned again in accordance with your position and this time the price moves fast. Ho .. ho .. ho. if I were near you that time, believe me I would also go as fast as possible.
Trailing Stop With Fractal and Bar High-Low
There is a change from a trailing stop method that I use this time(Charlotte). Previously I used the Keltner Channel, so this time I use 2 Fractal and the latest 2 Bar as stop losses. But I still use Keltner Channel as a guide to do the trailing, only the position of stop losses are no longer on the Keltner Channel itself.
In order to obtain the position of stop losses I compare the highest / lowest price of the last two fractal. I compare this price again with the last 2 bars. I use the last 2 Bar considering the highest / lowest price could be in one of this Bar. Trailing stop itself is activated when the price penetrates the Upper / Lower channel of Keltner Channel indicator.
The principle I want to reduce the risk in trading. While difficult to make a profit, then we better think about how to reduce losses. And trailing stop this is one way to reduce the risk of each transaction.

The Forward Test Result

This weekend I had time to post my EA performance in a forward test. Previously I just post my backtest and some ideas of my EA. Forward Test carried out since August 18, 2010 and use 3 accounts, 1 demo account on Alpari as well as 2 live accounts on ForexCom. But this is an early version of my project, which later I improve it as an intermediate term system EA. In the process, EA is already upgraded once. And there is one advantage of this EA, it was able to transact from at 19 to 23. But the problem with the ability to work longer, not followed by an adequate amount of transactions. So it makes sense to change the system from scalping system to intermediate system.
I would not be surprised if later on a lot of scalping system that works on USD JPY pair. Moreover, if the system only works after the closing of European and American markets. My test showed at least my EA to make profit in the last 3 years. And here's a surprise, I did not use a filter other than limiting the time to trade. So I just rely on the accuracy of the trading signal. To anticipate the worst conditions, I apply a rigorous risk management. Yes .. I have to regulate how much of losses suffered by the system may in a day. Try to open your MetaTrader, then observe the movement of USDJPY after the closure of European markets in the last 2 years!
I'm hoping one of the variants of this EA can be used for free via this blog. But it really depends on the outcome of our conversation later. Because maybe if you are interested to try this EA, I am afraid you will be hard to get it.
Well here I show the Detailed statement of my forward test:

Alpari Demo Account

Standard Account

Professional Account

Have a Nice Weekend

Combining 2 Expert Advisor

I'm making an expert advisor. I call this project Charlotte. Initially I was asked to modify vs_eurocross to work on USDJPY pair. I accept the job, and I began to modify vs_eurocross. In the end, with various modifications I get a pretty good backtest results. Unfortunately, the number of transactions carried out very little. Even stop losses should be set at 100 pips. However, Forward test remain to be done both on demo and live accounts. And the result, just like the backtest, the number of transactions is very small but for the average profit per transaction a little better than vs_eurocross.
Since seeing the results of the first backtest, I already have ideas for changing the character of this EA from scalping system to intermediate term system. The problem I was asked to create a scalping system, but I also do not want to forget this idea. Finally, I trace my code from scratch, and marks the point where I have to separate between scalping system and intermediate system. And finally I was satisfied, because I get 2 pieces of EA as well. And the last step I need to do is merge them back into an EA.
Actually I have shown my backtest results for the scalping system. This time I will show it again, and also compare it with the intermediate term system. I did a backtest from the period January 2009 to August 2010. The spread in my backtest is 2.8, this is the highest spread is given by Alpari for USDJPY pair. While the risk during the backtest period is 10 percent and 60 pip stop losses.

Especially for the intermediate term system, I do backtest 2 times. This is to show the scaling out method that I provide on this system. With the scaling out method, EA will take half of the profit when it has reached half of the target. So let's suppose the profit target is 20 pips, while EA have got profits of 10 pips, then EA would liquidate half of these profits. Both scalping system as well as intermediate-term trading system, just take a position on certain hours. For scalping system I chose to work at 21 to 23. As for the intermediate term, I arranged to work from at 19 to 1. Time zone is not defined, but refers to the broker Alpari.

without scaling out

Using Scaling Out

Scalping System

There is strong interest for me to combine this system. For the both EA can perform transactions at the same time. Maybe not in the precise timing, but at least still in the same bar. Thus the new strategy can be applied to select the system which would take precedence. Maybe it could produce more, but I myself can not confirm, because until this post I made, the process of merging the two EA has not yet been completed.

Finding Optimal Value without Optimization (Part 2 of 2)

In my opinion, lack of MetaTrader is a lack of information we get from the Detailed Statement. Perhaps because of the Detailed Statement of MetaTrader is also used by the broker to send to its customers. Clearly it is enough of the investors, but not for trading system developers. As an illustration, you can observe the MQL championship. At the end of the championship, you can see how they analyze the performance of a trading system. I wish such that report will be in the detailed statement.
I will show the detailed statement of the results of my test on my previous post.

Detailed Statement 19 - 4

You can notice that the detailed statement only provides general information about the profit / loss. But consider the following picture. This journal is a place where an EA can write down it's activities.

Profit hari 4: 82 Los hari 4: 15 sumprofit: -138.42
What does it mean? EA to report profit / loss based on the Day(Hari). Profitable trades on the 4th day (Thursday) is 82 (trades), while losses is 15 (trades). And Net Profit is -138.42 ($).
Profit Jam 23: 37 Los Jam 23: 0 sumprofit: 190.39
What does it mean? EA to report profit / loss hourly. Profit for all trading at 23 is 37(trades). And losses for all trading at 23(trades) is 0. And net profit for all trading at 23 is 190.39 ($).
So just based on the above information I could find out that I will get optimal results if I restrict trading time at around 21 to 1. But you are wrong if you guessed that the backtest results from 21 to 1 will be the same if you add up the net profit from 21 to 1. From the reports mentioned above, only one is for sure, that I was not allowed to start trading at 19! For more details, let you see the following picture:
n backtest I did, I set the EA only took one trade for each position. While EA could have produced more than a signal at a certain period. From the above picture there are 5 trades that generate profit (1 trade per hour), but on my backtest, the EA is only allowed to take a trade for each position.
But anyway, for me the above approach is sufficient for my EA. Based on reports from my journal, i perform 3 backtest with different periods, but all of them lie between 21 and 1.

trading time 21-0

Trading Time 21-23

Trading Time 23-1

You can download the function that i used to create hourly/daily detailed statement. There are only 2 functions in text file, deinit() and Analyze().Moreover it just loop from 19 to 6.
Maybe you can make it better, and have a more brilliant idea. Every trading system has a different characteristics. What I would like to make is how to get the optimal value of a variable without any optimization. Or at least when designing an EA, we can create a report that is more detailed and rich information on trading results.

Finding Optimal Value without Optimization (Part 1 of 2)

When a trading system suffered a drawdown phase, mostly what we do is performing optimization on a few variables to make adjustment to market condition. I do not want to debate whether the optimization will guarantee profitability or not. But one thing is for sure, do the optimization would take its own time in making trading system. But depending on a trading system that we make, sometimes there are some variables that we can actually know their optimal value without performing optimization.
In recent months I forced myself to complete an EA who worked on the USDJPY pair. This is based on several requests from my friends who came from Japan, and in general most of the visitors of this blog in recent months came from Japan.
I also get some input on the settings used on my EA, both vs_eurocross or on vs_eurchf. Actually I was a little worried about seeing their courage to use my EA on USDJPY pair, especially if they use vs_eurocross. But despite it all, what my concern is how they do the optimization in several variables, especially the trading time.
Finally I got the idea to create a function that analyzes the trading results as a whole when we make the process of backtesting. I think this should be better if the developer of MetaTrader include this report in a detailed statement. What I want from MetaTrader developer, as appropriate, we can get a detailed statement of profit / loss based on the hours or days. Isn't it interesting one?
Now to see how the script / functions work, I insert this function in the EA that I have just created. Then the functions / scripts will work right when EA completes an backtest. Or in other words, this function will be called from deinit functions in MQL4. As an experiment, I arranged for this EA to work from 19 o'clock until 4 o'clock. I do not want to mention the time zone, but for the record I always use data from Alpari broker. Apart from all the other variables, I do backtest from the period January 2010 to August 2010 and it's equity curve looks like the picture on the following image:
Ah .. I do not think anyone wants to invest his money in the system like this. But maybe the person will change his mind after seeing the optimal value of the trading time that obtained without optimization.